Population pyramids can be used to show change to age structure over time as well as projected changes to age structure in the future. Looking at Zambia’s population pyramids, not much change to age structure is evident until “Zambia 2050”.
Zambia’s population pyramids, from 1970 to 2010, reveal only a slight narrowing at the base of the pyramid. Indeed, between 1970 and 2010, fertility did decline from 7.4 children per woman to 6.0 children per woman. However, Zambia’s population age structure hasn’t changed significantly in the last 40 years, total fertility rates remain high and, in general, each working age adult supports several dependents. “Zambia 2030” shows another slight narrowing of the bottom of the pyramid, based on United Nations projections that assume a decline in total fertility to 4.8 children per woman over her lifespan. “Zambia 2050” shows a more noticeable narrowing of the base of the population pyramid, based on the assumption that fertility will decline further to 3.9 children per woman. In this 2050 scenario, Zambia would have a larger proportion of the population working-age and, if able to secure employment, able to contribute to economic growth.
Working Towards a Demographic Dividend in Zambia
If Zambia makes substantial investments in reproductive health and family planning, then fertility levels may begin to decline more significantly, and surviving children will be more likely to achieve better basic levels of health. With additional investments in health and education and economic initiatives to facilitate job creation, Zambia may be able to experience the rapid economic growth known as a demographic dividend. There is some ongoing work on the topic of a demographic dividend in Zambia.
- The Zambian Ministry of Finance, UNFPA’s Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Office, UNFPA Zambia Country Office, and African Institute for Development Policy are working together on an Zambian application of the DemDiv model as well as a full analytical report on the demographic dividend in Zambia to be published in 2015.
