Population pyramids can be used to show change to age structure over time as well as projected changes to age structure in the future. Looking at Uganda’s population pyramids, not much change to age structure is evident until “Uganda 2030”.
Uganda’s population pyramids, from 1970 to 2010, look nearly identical. Between 1970 and 2010, fertility declined only slightly from 7.1 children per woman to 6.2 children per woman. UN population projections show that fertility is expected to decrease more significantly over the next 20 years. “Uganda 2030” shows a narrowing at the bottom of the pyramid, based on the assumption that total fertility will decline to 4.4 children per woman over her lifespan. “Uganda 2050” shows a more noticeable narrowing of the base of the population pyramid, based on the assumption that fertility will decline further to 3.1 children per woman. In this 2050 scenario, Uganda would have a larger proportion of the population working-age and, if able to secure employment, able to contribute to economic growth.
Working Towards a Demographic Dividend in Uganda
If Uganda makes substantial investments in reproductive health and family planning, then fertility levels may begin to decline more significantly, and surviving children will be more likely to achieve better basic levels of health. With additional investments in health and education and economic initiatives to facilitate job creation, Uganda may be able to experience the rapid economic growth known as a demographic dividend. There is some ongoing work on the topic of a demographic dividend in Uganda.
- Uganda’s National Planning Authority led a Ugandan application of the DemDiv model and published a detailed analytical report on the demographic dividend in Uganda. These activities were completed in collaboration with African Institute for Development Policy and Futures Group, Health Policy Project. The report was accompanied by a policy brief. This report was signed and launched by President Museveni at the National Family Planning Conference in July 2014.
- Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) in cooperation with the Berlin Institute for Population and Development published a comparative analysis on the potential for a demographic dividend in Ethiopia and Uganda.
