Population pyramids can be used to show historical changes in age structure over time as well as projected changes in age structure in the future. Looking at Rwanda’s population pyramids, a change in the age structure is evident starting at “Rwanda 2010” and becomes more pronounced at “Rwanda 2015”.
Rwanda’s population pyramids from 1970 to 2015 reveal a remarkable narrowing at the base of the pyramid. Between 1970 and 2015, fertility did decline from 8.4 children per woman to 4.2 children per woman. The shape of “Rwanda 2015” has remarkable reduction in age groups 15-19, 20-24, and 25-29 which was due to the Tutsi Genocide in 1994 and not just low fertility. Nevertheless, though Rwanda’s population age structure has changed remarkably in the last five decades, total fertility rates remain high and, in general, each working age adult supports several dependents. The total wanted fertility rate (TWFR) is lower than the total fertility rate (TFR) and has narrowed marginally between 2010 and 2015, from 1.5 children in the 2010 RDHS to 1.1 children in 2014-15. “Rwanda 2030” has even more noticeable narrowing of the bottom of the pyramid, based on United Nations projections that assume a decline in total fertility to 2.98 children per woman over her lifespan. “Rwanda 2050” shows further narrowing of the base of the population pyramid, based on the assumption that fertility will decline further to 2.21 children per woman. In this 2030 and 2050 scenario, Rwanda would have a larger proportion of the population in working ages and, if well-educated and able to secure employment, will lead to a significant economic growth; hence achieving the demographic dividend.
Working Towards a Demographic Dividend in Rwanda
Rwanda has made substantial investments in reproductive health, family planning, and maternal and child health programs. These efforts and initiatives have led to the reduction of the fertility rate. If existing interventions are strengthened and new innovative strategies are established, fertility can be further reduced to achieve the national total fertility rate goal. Nonetheless, would the current progress continue, Rwanda has great potential of harvesting the fruits of the demographic dividend by 2030. For this to happen, substantial investments are needed to educate the growing youth population, to provide for the health needs of the Rwandan population, and to further stimulate job creation.
The Government of Rwanda has made family planning a key component of its development agenda, as documented in its Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (2013-2018). It aims to sustain family planning achievements and increase family planning availability and uptake.
