Population pyramids can be used to show change in population age structure over time. Here we can see that Ethiopia’s age structure is beginning to shift to older ages.
The broad bases of the “Ethiopia 1970” and “Ethiopia 1990” pyramids represent a large number of children in relation to the working age population. “Ethiopia 2010” shows a base that is beginning to narrow at the youngest ages, representing a fertility decline. “Ethiopia 2030” is the United Nations (UN) projection of Ethiopia’s population age structure if fertility continues to decline at a moderate rate. This pyramid assumes that by 2030, fertility will decline to an average of 3.0 children per woman over the course of her life. UN projections for Ethiopia’s population age structure in 2050 look significantly different than earlier population pyramids. “Ethiopia 2030” and “Ethiopia 2050” both show a proportionately larger working age population compared to the number of dependent children and elders, creating a window of opportunity for rapid economic growth.
Trend data shows that Ethiopia has made big strides on an issue that is important to achieving a demographic dividend: contraceptive prevalence use has increased dramatically in Ethiopia since 2000. In 2000, contraceptive prevalence among married women was 8 percent and, according to the 2014 mini-Demographic and Health Survey, it jumped to 42 percent by 2014. As a result, as we can see from population pyramids, fertility is declining and Ethiopia’s age structure is beginning to shift.
Working Towards a Demographic Dividend in Ethiopia
If Ethiopia continues to make substantial investments in reproductive health and family planning, fertility levels may continue to decline, and surviving children will be more likely to achieve better basic levels of health. With additional investments in health and education and economic initiatives to facilitate job creation, Ethiopia may be able to experience the rapid economic growth known as a demographic dividend. There are several organizations working on the topic of a demographic dividend in Ethiopia.
- The Government of Ethiopia has worked to create policies and allocate funds in order to improve health and education and to create jobs.
- Addis Ababa University Center for Population Studies has conducted unique research on the topic of a demographic dividend in Ethiopia.
- The Health Policy Project is working with partners to customize the DemDiv projection model to the Ethiopian context. This model will predict the potential benefits of a demographic dividend in Ethiopia and highlight cross-sector policies required to achieve those benefits.
- Population Reference Bureau has created resources on the importance of investing in young people in order to realize a demographic dividend in Ethiopia.
