The broad bases in both “Kenya 1970” and “Kenya 1990” represent a large number of children in relation to the working age population. “Kenya 2010” shows a base that is beginning to narrow at the youngest ages, representing a fertility decline. “Kenya 2030” is the United Nations projection of Kenya’s population age structure if fertility continues to decline. This pyramid assumes that by 2030, fertility will decline to an average of 3.4 children per woman over the course of her lifetime. “Kenya 2050” shows a further decline in fertility and ongoing changes to the age structure. This pyramid shows a larger working age population than currently exists compared to the number of dependent children and elders.
Working Towards a Demographic Dividend in Kenya
If Kenya continues to make substantial investments in reproductive health and family planning, fertility levels may continue to decline, and surviving children will be more likely to achieve better basic levels of health. With additional investments in health and education and economic initiatives to facilitate job creation, Kenya may be able to experience the rapid economic growth known as a demographic dividend. There are several organizations working on the topic of a demographic dividend in Kenya.
- The Government of Kenya has worked to create policies and allocate funds in order to improve health and education and to create jobs.
- National Transfer Accounts project created a country brief on the subject of the generational economy and the demographic dividend in Kenya.
- The Health Policy Project and National Council for Population and Development applied the DemDiv projection model to the Kenyan context.
- National Council for Population and Development continues to disseminate the results of the DemDiv model and to communicate with policymakers about strategic investments needed in order to realize a demographic dividend.