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Nigeria

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Population pyramids can be used to show change to age structure over time as well as projected changes to age structure in the future. Looking at Nigeria’s population pyramids, not much change to age structure is evident until “Nigeria 2030”.

Nigeria’s population pyramids from 1970 to 2010 look nearly identical. The lack of change between these pyramids means that the age structure of the country hasn’t changed much in the last 40 years. Total fertility rates in the country remain high and, in general, each working age adult supports several dependents. “Nigeria 2030” looks different than previous pyramids and is based on United Nations projections that assume a decline in total fertility to 4.9 children per woman over her lifespan. As a result, a slight narrowing of the base of this population pyramid is evident. “Nigeria 2050” shows a more noticeable narrowing of the base of the population pyramid, based on the assumption that fertility will decline further to 3.7 children per woman.  In this 2050 scenario, Nigeria would have a larger proportion of the population working-age and, if able to secure employment, able to contribute to economic growth.

Working Towards a Demographic Dividend in Nigeria

If Nigeria makes substantial investments in reproductive health and family planning, particularly in parts of the country with poor health indicators, then fertility levels may begin to decline more significantly, and surviving children will be more likely to achieve better basic levels of health. With additional investments in health and education, and economic initiatives to facilitate job creation, Nigeria may be able to experience the rapid economic growth known as a demographic dividend. There are a few organizations researching the topic of a demographic dividend in Nigeria.

  • National Transfer Accounts project created a country brief on the subject of the generational economy and the demographic dividend in Nigeria.
  • African Population Studies created a special supplement in Spring 2014 on Nigeria Population and Development Issues. The supplement included two articles on the demographic dividend in Nigeria.

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