Population pyramids can be used to show change to age structure over time as well as projected changes to age structure in the future. Looking at Tanzania’s population pyramids, change to the age structure is evident starting at “Tanzania 2030”.
Tanzania’s population pyramids from 1970 to 2010 reveal only a slight narrowing at the base of the pyramid. Indeed, between 1970 and 2010, fertility did decline from 6.8 children per woman to 5.4 children per woman. However, Tanzania’s population age structure hasn’t changed significantly in the last 40 years, total fertility rates remain high and, in general, each working age adult supports several dependents. Desired family size remains large in Tanzania, with men and women, on average, wishing to have a family of nearly 5 children. “Tanzania 2030” shows more noticeable narrowing of the bottom of the pyramid, based on United Nations projections that assume a decline in total fertility to 4.2 children per woman over her lifespan. “Tanzania 2050” shows further narrowing of the base of the population pyramid, based on the assumption that fertility will decline further to 3.3 children per woman. In this 2050 scenario, Tanzania would have a larger proportion of the population working-age and, if able to secure employment, able to contribute to economic growth.
Working Towards a Demographic Dividend in Tanzania
If Tanzania makes substantial investments in reproductive health and family planning, then fertility levels may begin to decline more significantly, and surviving children will be more likely to achieve better basic levels of health. With additional investments in health and education and economic initiatives to facilitate job creation, Tanzania may be able to experience the rapid economic growth known as a demographic dividend. There is some ongoing work on the topic of a demographic dividend in Tanzania.
- African Institute for Development Policy partnered with Pathfinder International and University of Dar es Salaam to publish a research brief and analytical report on the demographic dividend in Tanzania.
